Model forecasts, honestly graded
We build our own forecasting models for six sports and put them next to the betting market and the prediction markets, then grade everyone against what actually happened. Sports are a perfect lab for learning what data can and cannot predict, and it is hard to hide from a bad forecast.
MLB
Major League Baseball
Daily win probabilities, the market vs. our DSMLB model, graded against the closing line.
Live · Updated dailyOpen Dashboard →
WNBA
Women’s National Basketball Association
Nightly win probabilities from our DSWNBA model, the market, and Kalshi, graded against results.
Live · Updated dailyOpen Dashboard →
NWSL
National Women’s Soccer League
Match forecasts, the championship race, and the scorecard.
Live · Updated dailyOpen Dashboard →
NFL
National Football League
Weekly win probabilities and spreads, graded against the closing line.
Season begins September 10Open Dashboard →
Premier League
English Premier League
Match probabilities, the table, and the Golden Boot race.
Season begins August 21Open Dashboard →
World Cup 2026
2026 World Cup Archive
Every game, bracket, and grade from the 2026 tournament. Spain, champions.
Complete · Tournament archiveOpen Dashboard →