Analyzing Sports

Model forecasts, honestly graded

We build our own forecasting models for six sports and put them next to the betting market and the prediction markets, then grade everyone against what actually happened. Sports are a perfect lab for learning what data can and cannot predict, and it is hard to hide from a bad forecast.

MLB tale of the tape: Nationals at Phillies by offense, defense, and run differential
MLB

Major League Baseball

Daily win probabilities, the market vs. our DSMLB model, graded against the closing line.

Live · Updated dailyOpen Dashboard →
WNBA tale of the tape: Aces at Dream by offense, defense, and net rating
WNBA

Women’s National Basketball Association

Nightly win probabilities from our DSWNBA model, the market, and Kalshi, graded against results.

Live · Updated dailyOpen Dashboard →
NWSL tale of the tape: Kansas City vs Louisville by points, goal difference, and squad value
NWSL

National Women’s Soccer League

Match forecasts, the championship race, and the scorecard.

Live · Updated dailyOpen Dashboard →
NFL teams mapped by offensive and defensive strength
NFL

National Football League

Weekly win probabilities and spreads, graded against the closing line.

Season begins September 10Open Dashboard →
A Premier League game card with win probabilities from several models
Premier League

English Premier League

Match probabilities, the table, and the Golden Boot race.

Season begins August 21Open Dashboard →
The 2026 World Cup Golden Boot race
World Cup 2026

2026 World Cup Archive

Every game, bracket, and grade from the 2026 tournament. Spain, champions.

Complete · Tournament archiveOpen Dashboard →